The impact of urbanization and climate change on urban temperatures: a systematic analyse for Tirana city

By Albana HASIMI, Blerina PAPAJANI, Gazmir ÇELA, Elvin ÇOMO, Florinda TUGA, Mirela DVORANI

Abstract
Some 3.5 billion people reside in urban areas, according to the WMO. The city population is growing, and it’s far projected that via way of means of 2050 approximately 66% of the populace could be residing in towns and concrete areas. This increment is expected to happen not only through the increasing number of megacities, but also large and medium-sized cities with the largest urban growth. The situation changed dramatically in the twentieth century, as the rate of urban population growth increased significantly also in the Tirana city at the last decades. A statistical methodology is used to perform the required calculations and analyses related to temperatures above 35°C in meteorological data for the period 2010-2020. Application of the Statistical Methodology in the Field of Meteorology has wide applicability in the study of extreme temperature events and can help in: Forecasting heatwaves and analysing climate patterns for different periods; Assessing the impact of high temperatures on health and ecosystems, and monitoring extreme temperature events; Creating policies and risk management strategies to address the potential consequences of extreme heat on daily life, agriculture, and other sectors. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that the urbanization will strongly affect maximal temperature. The maximum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming. Results indicate that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment. It was found that, in the future, summer weather will spread to early autumn, and winter weather will move to early spring, in Tirana
Keywords: urban resilience; statistical methodology; maximum temperature; climate parameters; Tirana city.

https://doi.org/10.58944/xvay7780